Market Precognition

The goal of this blog is to PRE-RECOGNIZE next several moves in the market
I focus on trading the S&P emini futures and T-notes futures.
A loyal reader will begin to understand the themes, memes, and sentiment that leads the market.

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Johnny Hom

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Never Short Obama!





I am getting killed shorting today. We have a series of compounding errors:
1. I did not sell the puts on Monday creating frustration.
2. I did not execute my plan to buy Obama and then sell Obama. This week he has spoken on Monday, Tuesday, and today.
3. I shorted into a dull day (day before Thanksgiving) that is illiquid.
4. I kept trying to play the same direction and within the same hour.

I must have the discipline to not play when I am off.

I had my biggest trading win last week (+6800) on Friday buying up the Obama rally. Today, I had my biggest trading loss (-5250).

LESSON: BIGGEST LOSSES FOLLOW THE BIGGEST WINS.

Don't do stupid things when you feel emboldened.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

New Jack City




Saturday, November 15, 2008

Comparison - Repentance & Restoration

Comparison - The Backslide


Comparison - The Phoenix/Burial & Resurrection


Side by Side Comparison - Death


Thursday, November 13, 2008

PRETTY GOOD FIT
















WOW!.
What a fit! Key features that match:
1. Overnight jack in Europe.
2. Scary mid-day sell-off.
3. V-SPIKE.
4. Mega-Jack at the closing hour.

Not sure how you can do better than that!

OVERNIGHT PANIC - INTEL WARNS ON Q4




The Grounie for today is 10/15/08. On that day we had the biggest percentage down move since 1987. After the close, we had a panic sell-off just like yesterday night. Initially, you made money shorting that move. However, during European trading, you had a jack that was very painful, and then a big dump to re-test the lows.

Today, we had the lows of 841, a jack during Europe of 863, and then a re-test of 843. I left orders out to capture part of that move. AMAZING.

We should have a recovery by the end of the day.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Wash Post Declares "Death of American Capitalism"-10/10/08

1987 Style Crash-10/9/08

Fed, ECB, others Coordinated Rate Cuts-10/08/08

House Passes Bailout-10/3/08

"NAY" to Bailout-9/29/08

SEC Short-selling Ban & RTCII-9/19/08

Gasparino Day-9/18/08

AIG Bailout-9/16/08

Lehman Bankruptcy-9/15/08

Fannie & Freddie Bailout-9/8/08

A Couple of Cool Graphs




The US debt-to-GDP ratio has a lot further to run. The question is whether Obama will give the US economic problem the sense of "wartime" urgency (as FDR did). I suspect that he will be a gradualist, and the US economic will hit a second leg down by March.

If McCain is elected, then he will focus on fiscal matters. My guess is that he'll toss a few crumbs to people, but then he'll start cutting the budget. This will cause the economy to slide even further and faster.

Regardless of who is elected, whatever they do will be too little, too late and we will have another leg down by spring of 2009.

In the meanwhile, we remain on hedge fund death watch. I think that on scary HF blow up news, the market will be a buy. On rally days, the market will be a sell. There is heavy resistance between 1100-1200.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

HOW BAD CAN VIX GET?



The VIX is at all time highs. How high can it get? Back in the 1930s it was close to 100. It can get pretty bad.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

PAULSON BLUES





We are seeing a replay of the original Paulson Bailout trading. On 9/18, we see the leaks to Gasparino which took the S&P up from 1175 to 1212. The next day, we had an options expiration SQ, and the S&P opened up at 1287. From there, within 3 trading days, it closed down to 1187.

This is a new pattern. The BAILOUT REJECTION PATTERN. We are just making this stuff as we go along.

Unprecedented.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

POST-HIGH INTENSITY DAYS













This is what happens after each HIGH INTENSITY days.

HIGH INTENSITY DAYS














Here are a series of recent HIGH INTENSITY days. Of course, they are all sell-offs to the downside. What is interesting is that most of the days feature bottoming at the close, except yesterday 10/6/08. I think that the bottom timing is beginning to morph.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

SECOND GREAT DEPRESSION
















VP Candidate Sarah Palin told CBS's Katie Couric that another Great Depression could happen. We have Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke warning of terrible consequences of not passing the proposed Bailout Package. Google Trends is showing that the search for "Great Depression" has spiked in recent days.

This is all perfect political Kabuki. The fact of the matter is that before the Great Depression occurred, no one even knew what a "Great Depression" was. Sure they had some pretty awful downturns and recessions, but it was not called a "Depression". It only became a Depression because policy made it worse.

The fact that the Net has become abuzz with depression-talk tells me that we are in a hysterical phase. This is generally a good time to buy stocks.

So I am waiting for the Bailout to disappoint people, and then I will be a buyer of stocks.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

HANK VS. OBAMA


















What Hank "The Hammer" Paulson has accomplished this week is something that Barack Hussein "The One" Obama could never have even dreamed of: he has executed the most massive transfer of wealth that this world has ever seen. Hank has robbed from the rich and given to the poor without levying a single tax dollar or firing a single bullet!

Now, you say, "Hold on!" Hank has just saddled every man, woman, child, and unborn with thousands of dollars of taxes against future income, and he has unleashed some new horrific neo-socialistic order on the United States of America. But wait! What you are missing, and what the media is missing, and what BOTH Liberal and Conservative bloggers are missing is that Hank has just dropped napalm on the entire hedge fund industry in the name of jacking up the value of every 401K and restoring trust to banks and brokers so that Joe 401k Public does not put them out of business with a series of panic withdrawals.

Let me explain. Hedge funds make money using leverage and short-selling. If hedge funds merely bought stocks and bonds, they would be mutual funds. Also, hedge funds can only be owned by so called accredited investors which is a technical term for millionaires. If there is anyone benefiting from a falling stock market, it is the hedge fund operators. Hedge funds have grown to over $1 TRILLION in assets in just the past five years, and all those ultra-greedy and rich people who made money during this CREDIT BUBBLE plowed a good chunk of it right back into hedge funds. So by blowing up this HEDGE FUND BUBBLE, in effect, Hank Paulson is returning this wealth back to Joe 401K.

The only problem is that Joe 401K can only exploit this wealth transfer by SELLING STOCK. Even Jim Cramer is advising everyone to sell off 20% of their stock holdings.

GENIUS?

Barack Obama on the other hand wants to raise income taxes on the wealthy, raise capital gains taxes, and raise taxes on businesses large and small. The problem with this method of robbing the rich is that it gives the rich too much time to figure out ways NOT TO PAY THE GOVERNMENT. The rich are rich for a reason. They know how to not pay taxes. Under the Obama regime, income would DECREASE!. Jobs would become scarcer, pay would stagnate, and GDP would actually go down resulting is less wealth for Joe 401K both in investment gains and employment income.

The rich would simply figure out ways to collect income overseas, resulting in massive wealth transfers and a dramatically weaker dollar. They would also find ways to enrich themselves without declaring it as income. I don't know how they would do this, but with their armies of accountants and lawyers, they would find a way.

In other words, the Obama plan simply won't work, and will leave Joe 401K in a worse situation than where he began, even though he would receive $1000 in the mail from the Federal Government.

In conclusion, Hank "The Hammer" Paulson is my hero for accomplishing a massive redistribution of wealth from the ultra-greedy to the middle class, and establishing a plan that will ultimately benefit the entire country with little in the way of taxpayer liability. More on how this will work later.

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Trojan Horse - 9/8/08











Yesterday's bail out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the Treasury was yet another TROJAN HORSE for the bears. One of the key observations of sentiment trading is that strong emotional patterns tend to repeat themselves. I see this as entirely behavioral in nature. For more on this, read Joseph Ledoux' The Emotional Brain.

So basically, on 9/2, we had a gift of oil cratering below $110. The market had been fixated on the meme that LOWER OIL, HIGHER STOCKS. The sell-off proved that this was just not true. The implication of the sell-off is that GLOBAL DEFLATION is the real problem. All you need to do is to look at the 5-year US treasury yield trading below 3.00% to get a sense of how threatening the deflation clouds are.

So, the point is that the TROJAN HORSE trade will be a feature in this new BEAR phase.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Two S3s and a Jump - 8/20/2008














The set-up going into today was two S3s and then a jump. I was using 8/4 as a grounie set-up. There should have been an EARLY V-SPIKE in the morning. This should have set-up a low.

I was short overnight from 1273. Covered my shorts at 1265. This was a high probability S3 & S2 overnight squeeze set-up. I covered my put hedge yesterday at 1268.75, and put out the hedge again overnight knowing that we would get that dumb squeeze.

Then into the morning dump to 1261, I shorted 10 more 1200 AUG PUTS at 10.75. This looked great when futures squeezed up to 1276.50 afterwards.

However, looking at the 8/4 grounie, I noticed that the market gets weaker at the close. I lost my nerve when I saw the headline about Russia and Condi signing the Warsaw Missile Treaty. I covered my 10 puts at 9.25. Still a profit, but I missed the rally at the close.

BOTTOM-LINE: I did not fully think out the scenario that we could close weaker. I should've put out a line of futures shorts if we broke 1260, or maybe I was simply oversized. Anyway, talking to Jim panicked me. Have a GAME PLAN, stick to the GAME PLAN.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

2ND DROP DAY - 8/19/08










I am tracking a grounie from 8/1. Basically, we get an angle backwards reset, and then a push forward.

Compare today's chart with 8/1.

We should get a rally overnight up to 1271-1274 then a sell-off in the morning.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

CHOP, CHOP, CHOP - 8/13/08










The waves continue to be very choppy in the S&P. This current period is quite similar to last August in 2007. We had big thrusts up on the back of positive news on the financials, and there were calls that the BOTTOM was in. However, no thrust has any lasting power. So, we just play pinball back and forth for 20-30 points each thrust.

Jim Cramer is leading this charge of calling the BOTTOM.

Today's market fits this pattern of thrusting up for two days, and then retreating for two days. Daily ranges continue to be around 30 points in the S&P. This is a very good market to just trade the chop. The fear, of course, is that we get a break-out.

This sentiment pattern is still fitting the BULLISH mode.