Market Precognition

The goal of this blog is to PRE-RECOGNIZE next several moves in the market
I focus on trading the S&P emini futures and T-notes futures.
A loyal reader will begin to understand the themes, memes, and sentiment that leads the market.

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Johnny Hom

Wednesday, November 12, 2003

THEME: SCEPTICISM
Great quote from Art Cashin:
If there was a downside, said Art Cashin of UBS Financial Services, it was relatively light volume. "It's as if the food's great, the drinks are chilled, the band's great, and there are only four people at the party," he told CNBC's Closing Bell.


THEME: MUTUAL FUND SCANDAL
Jon Markman, MSN
If your fund hasn't surfaced in the scandal yet, don't be too smug. The SEC last week said it believes that as many as half of all mutual funds allowed preferred customers to engage in a borderline-illegal practice known by the misnomer "market timing." Meantime, as many as 25% gave those elite customers the ability to employ an outright fraudulent practice known as "late trading."

* Market timing: Large customers were allowed to profit either from quick trades on stale prices in illiquid bond funds or from time-zone differences in the prices of international stock funds. Because most funds restrict investors to a maximum of four to six trades per year, these customers in some cases were permitted to create "smurf" accounts to hide their actions -- a technique long used by money-launderers. Just as cartoon Smurfs all have the same blue bodies but different names, smurf accounts have different names on their titles but actually belong to a single person or corporate entity.

* Late trading: Large customers were allowed to buy mutual funds at closing prices after 4 p.m., permitting them to benefit from price-moving news after hours.

Private attorneys who've filed lawsuits against funds now say that these publicized practices are just the tip of the iceberg. One attorney told me that insiders have come forward to allege that late trading in some cases occurred as late as an hour into the next day's trading.

"We've been approached by whistle-blowers at various major funds and have gotten the sense that the practice was endemic," said Robert Nelson, an attorney at Lieff Cabraser Heimann & Bernstein. "At some places, with management approval, you could get a Tuesday fund price an hour into trading on a Wednesday. Because of the way shares were cleared, the potential for abuse was enormous."

Clearly the story on this one is far from over. The potential litigation cases could be miles long. I think that before this is over, the "revenge factor" will take over and we will need to see a mutual fund on the gallows pole

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