Market Precognition

The goal of this blog is to PRE-RECOGNIZE next several moves in the market
I focus on trading the S&P emini futures and T-notes futures.
A loyal reader will begin to understand the themes, memes, and sentiment that leads the market.

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Johnny Hom

Monday, December 08, 2003

THEME: DOLLAR & COMMODITIES
From the FT...

Platinum soars on fears over shortages
By Kevin Morrison and John Reed
Published: December 5 2003 4:00 | Last Updated: December 5 2003 4:00

Platinum prices rose to fresh 23-year highs yesterday after Anglo Platinum, the world's largest miner of the precious metal, cut back its production expansion forecasts over the next three years.

The cut in production by the South African miner, responsible for nearly 40 per cent of the metal's output last year, has stoked fears of possible shortages given that demand has exceeded supply for the past five years. The price has more than doubled in that period.

Platinum prices peaked at $796 a troy ounce in London, up $15 on the day, and is within sight of the $800 level - a price unseen since March 1980, when prices spiked to a record $1,048.

Despite soaring platinum prices, Anglo Platinum has seen its margins hit, like other South African mining companies, by the strengthening rand. The currency has appreciated by 50 per cent against the US dollar since hitting a low of more than 13 to the dollar in late 2001. South Africa produces about 70 per cent of global platinum supply, and this week Impala Platinum warned that its earnings for the year would be more than 30 per cent lower than last year's, also due to the rand.

Anglo Platinum said yesterday it was committed to expanding its production base, but uncertainty over the rand led the company to delay implementation of several of its mining projects by between one and three years.

"The relative strength of the rand means the projects are not as lucrative as they should be," said Ralph Havenstein, Anglo Platinum's chief executive officer.


SPEC: VIDEO GAMES
From BusinessWeek...

Q: Jonathan, is there any software that will be a hit during the Christmas shopping season? And what company will benefit, if any?
A: We like Electronic Arts (ERTS ) with its strong video-game library of brands, such as Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter, in addition to its market-dominant sports brands like Madden NFL Football and FIFA Soccer. We believe that ERTS should have a very strong Christmas selling season, as the current generation of hardware consoles continues to be built out.


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