Market Precognition

The goal of this blog is to PRE-RECOGNIZE next several moves in the market
I focus on trading the S&P emini futures and T-notes futures.
A loyal reader will begin to understand the themes, memes, and sentiment that leads the market.

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Johnny Hom

Tuesday, May 18, 2004

THEME: BEARS
In sentiment, I detect a lot of sadness and despair. This is odd given that the market really is not down that much. I think the despair comes because people are not long the market, i.e. the indices. Instead, they are long the fad plays:

1. Non-dollar markets
2. Gold
3. Commodities
4. Tech
5. Leveraged carry plays (bonds, REITs, high yield)

The sadness comes from the fact that they have sold. This is the perfect environment for value players to swoop in.

Here's an extreme comment from a former bull:

Earlier this month, Merrill said its own proprietary Risk Posture Barometer has been falling since January, and chief small cap strategist Satya Pradhuman suggested then that risk appetites historically take 15 months to stabilize, on average -- in other words, it could be spring 2005 before investors feel like taking risks again.

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