Market Precognition

The goal of this blog is to PRE-RECOGNIZE next several moves in the market
I focus on trading the S&P emini futures and T-notes futures.
A loyal reader will begin to understand the themes, memes, and sentiment that leads the market.

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Johnny Hom

Tuesday, August 31, 2004

SENTIMENT: EXTREME CAUTION
The market is very worried now. The GOP has used Terror as their platform. Unfortunately for me, a Kerry supporter, its working. As a trader, I cannot let my own personal biases go against my trading systems & experience. Also, I cannot fail to see that Rudy Giuliani's speech yesterday was devastating to Kerry. His silence is telling.

The GOP knows that people are scared. Even though everyone probably would feel safer if either Giuliani or McCain were in charge, their blessing of W combined with the image of W on Ground Zero is very powerful.

The markets are scared of many things. Oil. Terror. The list is long. This week, they are terrified of two things:
1. INTC quarterly update (Thur)
2. Employment report (Fri)

Sentiment & the trading technicals are both painting a bullish picture. I shorted semis back in Feb. Covered after making 15%. What a mistake that was. Now, its too late to go short. Its better to go long.

In addition, Greenspan is not blind to the Terror. He will not raise interest rates in light of it.

TRADE: BUY SEMIS
It seems pretty scary but, I think that now is the time to buy semiconductors (SMH). The INTC quarterly report is scaring everyone to death.

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