Market Precognition

The goal of this blog is to PRE-RECOGNIZE next several moves in the market
I focus on trading the S&P emini futures and T-notes futures.
A loyal reader will begin to understand the themes, memes, and sentiment that leads the market.

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Johnny Hom

Thursday, July 10, 2008

BADA-BING - S3






We had the PUMP-N-DUMP short-cover rally failure yesterday. That was an easy trade.

Market ticks annoyingly higher overnight. You set-up a short pre-open with stops above overnight highs. The market never even challenges you. Short 1277, cover 1268. The market will chop for 3 hours, and then make a swan dive in the afternoon. I covered too soon. Maybe look at re-establishing short for afternoon next time.

Today's market call was a BADA-BING. First of all, the set-up overnight was for a rally. This is what happens after the PUMP-N-DUMP. Generally, this late into the sentiment cycle, a PUMP-N-DUMP does not occur again. Instead we get the back-n-fill. Hence, the BADA-BING.

The first trade is to short the spike waiting for a re-test of the lows. Then it is to re-short the re-test of the day highs. We made another run at the lows later in the day.

I shorted 1254.25. Got nervous as we went up to 1258. But we had a dump down to 1237.5. I covered at 1253.5. Took the money and ran.

What should I have done? I guess the risk was lose 4, make 10+. So, I should've kept the trade.

Microsoft Mary program is pretty good and telling me where volume is transacting. Its a series of poker bets. The flop is when you break a certain level. Pretty easy game when you look at it that way.

I need to log these patterns going forward.

Welcome to the Jungle!

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