Market Precognition

The goal of this blog is to PRE-RECOGNIZE next several moves in the market
I focus on trading the S&P emini futures and T-notes futures.
A loyal reader will begin to understand the themes, memes, and sentiment that leads the market.

email me
Johnny Hom

Wednesday, February 25, 2004

THEME: ENERGY
Shocking run up in gasoline today. We aren't even close to the summer driving season and gas is making new highs. This can't be good for Bush. What happened to theory that occupying Iraq would mean cheap gas for as far as the eye can see?
The trade is to get long energy stocks ASAP!!!


From WSJ.

Gasoline futures climbed amid news of the report, which showed a much bigger draw than analysts had expected. The draw in gasoline stocks of 1.6 million barrels to 203.4 million barrels last week was greater than energy analysts' projections for a decline of about 146,000 barrels.

Gasoline inventories have fallen in four of the past five reporting weeks, leading the DOE's Energy Information Administration to warn that markets will remain tight at least through the high-demand summer driving season.

The draw in gasoline leaves inventories 1.2% below the year-ago level and 4.5% below the five-year average, the EIA said.

U.S. gasoline demand rose 69,000 barrels a day last week to 8.796 million barrels a day, the highest ever for any week in February. It's also the highest since Dec. 19, when demand registered at 9.166 million barrels a day. A year ago, gasoline demand was 8.619 million barrels a day.

Most analysts pegged gasoline as the product most likely to drive prices across the Nymex petroleum complex in the near-term.

"Gasoline, I definitely think, is solid and the leader," said Kyle Cooper, an energy analyst for Citigroup in Houston. "The drop in gasoline is a concern. Normally, you see gasoline inventories pick up a little bit by now, and they're not."

The EIA also reported that refining operations fell by 3% last week to 87.3% of operable capacity. Analysts had expected a much smaller decline of 0.1 percentage point.

While the plunge in refinery utilization may have prevented a draw in crude inventories, it also may have hampered gasoline production, analysts said.

Mr. Cooper attributed the drop in refinery runs to "the little refinery glitches we had across the country last week. I thought they were going to be offset by refineries coming back up, but that didn't happen."

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home