Market Precognition

The goal of this blog is to PRE-RECOGNIZE next several moves in the market
I focus on trading the S&P emini futures and T-notes futures.
A loyal reader will begin to understand the themes, memes, and sentiment that leads the market.

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Johnny Hom

Thursday, March 04, 2004

Trader Talk

Energy continues to be a major play. Headlines are only beginning to trickle in. News about tensions in Venezuela supports this claim. I love oil service sector. Gasoline will hit $3 this year.

Stocks continue to have a bullish bias. But volatility is getting crushed. People are getting long so there is no major rush to the upside. This is very different than 1999-2000 when upside vol spikes killed option market-makers. Its difficult to make money in the indices, but individual stocks can pay off huge.

Dollar has a nice move up. Gold is responding well in spite of this.

Bonds remain a mystery to me. Vols are getting crushed so its a different beast from last year. It smells fishy. Asian Central Bank or Fed manipulation??? Offerings seem light. Again, low vol means its difficult for a trader to make money.




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