Market Precognition

The goal of this blog is to PRE-RECOGNIZE next several moves in the market
I focus on trading the S&P emini futures and T-notes futures.
A loyal reader will begin to understand the themes, memes, and sentiment that leads the market.

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Johnny Hom

Saturday, May 22, 2004

THEME: ENERGY CRISIS
There's been a lot of hysteria about the "energy crisis". Evidence of this is the interview with an expert on CNBC who is predicting $100/barrel of oil by the end of the decade.

Here's a quote from Donald Luskin:

And here's an even more amazing statistic. Over time, thanks to technology, we've gotten much more efficient in the way we use gasoline, oil, and energy of all kinds. In 1974, when the first oil crisis hit, it took more than 17 quadrillion BTUs of energy to produce $1 million of gross domestic product (measured in constant year-2000 dollars). Today it takes less then 10 quadrillion BTUs.

One more statistic: in 1978 the U.S. consumed more than 18 million barrels of oil every day, when annual GDP was $5 trillion. Today we use only 10% more oil every day than we did then, but GDP has more than doubled to almost $11 trillion. (Again, both figures are in constant year-2000 dollars.)

The bottom line: oil is important, but it just doesn't matter quite the same way that it used to.

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