Market Precognition

The goal of this blog is to PRE-RECOGNIZE next several moves in the market
I focus on trading the S&P emini futures and T-notes futures.
A loyal reader will begin to understand the themes, memes, and sentiment that leads the market.

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Johnny Hom

Tuesday, July 27, 2004

THEME: JOBS ILLUSION
Tom McManus of BoA has also derided the "Birth/Death Model" that has rendered the jobs report a complete fiction.
This from Bethany McLean of Fortune:

Texas Hedge Report, one of my favorite publications, writes that they believe those stats "are possibly being manipulated for political reasons" by an arcane figure known as the "Birth/Death Model adjustment." This adjustment is meant to reflect the birth and death of business establishments, and from April 2003 through January 2004, the net job creation from the Birth/Death Model estimation was just 374,000 jobs in a span of ten months, or about 37,400 jobs a month. But between February and June of 2004, the Birth/Death Model estimation (I get a kick just out of writing that) has "magically created 915,000 jobs—goosing job creation from the model to 183,000 jobs a month.... What is scary is that last month’s total job creation was only 112,000—meaning that if not for the Birth/Death adjustments, we would’ve LOST 80,000 jobs in June!" reports Texas Hedge.

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