Market Precognition

The goal of this blog is to PRE-RECOGNIZE next several moves in the market
I focus on trading the S&P emini futures and T-notes futures.
A loyal reader will begin to understand the themes, memes, and sentiment that leads the market.

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Johnny Hom

Thursday, July 01, 2004

MEME: STAGFLATION
My take on today's sell-off is that the market is now afraid of stagflation. Here's why:
The Fed needs to raise interest rates at least to 2.5% to get it back to "neutral", i.e. to get it back up to the the level of inflation. If the economy is driven by cheap interest rates, and the actual fundamentals of job & income growth really aren't there, then this forced raise in rates could tip it over.

The risk lies in the housing market. Rising house values have cushioned joe public. His stock portfolio was shot, be he "found" money in his house. Not only has he proceeded to spend it, he is actually speculating with it by buying 2nd homes.

In 2000, stocks seemed to be the safest place to put your money in the long-run. Now houses occupy that role.

If the Fed does not raise rates, then clearly we have seen the weak link in the economic chain is commodities prices. It cannot afford to keep rates this low forever.

Consumers are lousy are financial planning. Remember these are the same people to piled all their money into dot.coms! They are also unhedged and unprepard for the great real estate crash that is inevitable.

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