THEME: PSYCHOLOGY OF BUSH'S SPEECH

Particularly the broad masses of the people can be moved only by the power of speech.
-- Adolf Hitler

There is a very simple tell about the Bush speech: if you click on the official Bush website, you will not see the speech available in video. However, you can see the speech on Foxnews, click here.

Whenever the heart contradicts the mind, there is a trading opportunity. In
psychology, it is called cognitive dissonance.

The media can pretend not to have seen "it" but they cannot ignore it sub-consciously. The "it" am referring to is the same thing that occurred during the famous 7 minutes of Fahrenheit 9/11 that Bush spent reading My Pet Goat when he should have been on his feet fighting a war. On RNC night,"it" occurred when a protestor began interrupting his sentence "Our strategy is succeeding" about halfway through the speech. The crowd started chanting "4 more years" out of synch with his speech, apparently in a pre-programmed effort the drown out the protests. Bush glanced around nervously, and tried to keep on going. But then for a few seconds, his eyes left the teleprompter to survey the crowd and figure out what was going on. He paused and in his eyes, you could see the same mixture of confusion, nervousness, and unmistakably, fear. It is the same fear and hesitancy that we saw during the 7 minutes spent reading a book while knowing full well the USA was under attack.

Was he afraid of assassination? Was he afraid of embarrassment? Was he afraid that the people would see that the Emperor had no clothes on?

You can see "IT" by clicking here to Foxnews and going to the very end of Part 2, the whole thing starts from there and continues to the end.

The entire second half of his speech was pained. He flubbed various lines. The audience's fire was doused. He looked like he wanted to rush through it and get off the stage.

Bush has never been comfortable with making speeches. In fact during the speech, he mocked himself by talking about how Arnie had to "correct my English." However, as with a lie detector test, few human beings are physically able to hide their true psychological disposition.

Specifically, it was interesting to see which lines Bush stuttered, which lines he read with flat intonation or unnatural stress, and which lines he actually nailed and generated a true emotional response. Also, what the news will not report is that the two disruptions by protestors really shook up Bush. Prior to the disruptions, he looked like a gymnast on the balance beam just trying not to fall off. After, the disruption, Bush started flubbing his lines. What I saw in the faces of the delegates was anxiety. Even Giuliani had a pained look (I was watching NBC). Live TV is a bitch.

First, the lines he nailed were:

1. To create more jobs in America, America must be the best place in the world to do business
2. ...so we unleashed that energy with the largest tax relief in a generation.
3. If you say the heart and soul of America is found in Hollywood, I'm afraid you are not the candidate of conservative values.
4. Because the union of a man and woman deserves an honored place in our society, I support the protection of marriage against activist judges.
5. That would be nations like Great Britain, Poland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Denmark, El Salvador, Australia and others - allies that deserve the respect of all Americans, not the scorn of a politician.
6. Some folks look at me and see a certain swagger, which in Texas is called "walking."
7. Now and then I come across as a little too blunt. And for that we can all thank the white-haired lady sitting right up there.
8. ...whatever strengths you have, you're going to need them.
9. I've held the children of the fallen, who were told their dad or mom is a hero, but would rather just have their dad or mom.
10. I've met with parents and wives and husbands who have received a folded flag and said a final goodbye to a soldier they loved.

Interestingly, the lines he flubbed were many more. Specifically, the first 1/2 of the speech was a sort of mini State of the Union, and the delivery was flat and uninspiring. Its hard to be inspired reading someone else's speech on the issues of health care, education, and jobs. I am pretty sure these ideas will be filed behind the Mission to Mars.

However, the lines he had real trouble with were:

1. His taxes - his policies of tax and spend, of expanding government rather than expanding opportunity, are the politics of the past. We are on the path to the future, and we're not turning back.
2. We went to the United Nations Security Council, which passed a unanimous resolution demanding the dictator disarm, or face serious consequences.
3. Free societies in the Middle East will be hopeful societies, which no longer feed resentments and breed violence for export. Free governments in the Middle East will fight terrorists instead of harboring them, and that helps us keep the peace.
4. And then our troops will return home with the honor they have earned.
5. We soldiers of yours are doing great and scoring victories in confronting the evil terrorists.
6. You are involved in a struggle of historic proportion.
7. Today, the government of a free Afghanistan is fighting terror; Pakistan is capturing terrorist leaders
8. Not long ago seven Iraqi men came to see me in the Oval Office. They had X's branded into their foreheads and their right hands had been cut off by Saddam Hussein's secret police, the sadistic punishment for imaginary crimes. During our emotional visit, one of the Iraqi men used his new prosthetic hand to slowly write out in Arabic a prayer for God to bless America.
9. I am proud that our country remains the hope of the oppressed and the greatest force for good on this earth.
10. In every military headquarters, one meets alarmed officials doing their utmost to deal with the consequences of the occupation policy that they admit has failed.
11. ...who with the American people persevered, knowing that a new democracy at the center of Europe would lead to stability and peace.
12. I've tried to comfort Americans who lost the most on Sept. 11, people who showed me a picture or told me a story, so I would know how much was taken from them.

To access the text of the speech click here.

The first half of the speech was flat and uninspiring. The second half was wobbly and unbalanced. But like a gymnast, who totters her way on the balance beam, but sticks her landing, Bush stuck his landing by getting teary-eyed at the right moment: the end. Kudos to Karl Rove for engineering this moment by triggering thoughts of seeing children who've lost their parents.

Now a detractor could easily say that Bush is simply not a good speech maker, but he has other strong points. I don't doubt that Bush is a strong fund raiser and it would seem that he is better in more casual settings.

However, as Hitler understood, speech is the method to move the masses. By analyzing his speech, it is clear to me that Bush feels genuine empathy towards the victims of 9/11, and has a genuine desire to respond to the attack, if only to extract payback. What Bush lacks is confidence in the current policies on the War on Terror. He also does not take the analogies to WWII to heart.

Also, it is clear that Bush feels passionately about taxes, business, gay marriage, abortion, and the role of religion. He does not exude genuineness in any of his domestic agenda, except for perhaps education.

So, in the end, we are left with this feeling that we do not have very good choices. Kerry does not seem to be the obvious answer to Bush's short-comings. But, Bush does not engender enough confidence either. So, the Election is still a coin toss, slightly weighted to Bush. No real change.

However, sub-consciously, who can feel very secure when the RNC cannot even shut out possible double agents from infiltrating their home field? Does Bush really understand why someone would risk spending time in jail in order to get within earshot of him and the nation? Furthermore, does he really understand the energy and hate that is required for someone would throw away their own life to kill Americans? Where does this negative energy come from? And is it growing or receding?

Clearly jingoism gives us no comfort. Perhaps Bush said it best when said about the War of Terror, "I don't think you can win it."

The effect for the market is a slight negative, but we need to monitor events closely.