Market Precognition

The goal of this blog is to PRE-RECOGNIZE next several moves in the market
I focus on trading the S&P emini futures and T-notes futures.
A loyal reader will begin to understand the themes, memes, and sentiment that leads the market.

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Johnny Hom

Saturday, September 18, 2004

THEME: CHINA & INFLATION & HOUSING & IVAN
This is an interesting excerpt from a CNN article:

China is taking about 40 percent of the world's cement production and about a third of its steel, according to the National Association of Home Builders. And, perhaps more important, its demand for cement and other products is affecting the shipping fleet that used to carry materials here.

"The ships that were being used to transport cement here are being diverted to the Orient, to China," NAHB chief executive Jerry Howard said. "It's more attractive financially for them to make a run from Southeast Asia . . . and from Greece [two big cement-exporting nations] to China than to ship to the United States."

America imports about 20 percent of the cement used here, but Florida, the hottest building market in the nation, imports about 40 percent of its supplies. Florida's demand for cement is high because building codes require concrete framing materials to protect against hurricane damage.

Before this year's hurricanes, the NAHB said its survey of builders showed 41 percent of respondents citing cement shortages, a huge jump from May, when 11 percent of those polled reported problems, and from March, when only 3 percent of builders noted difficulties.

The Portland Cement Association, a trade group representing U.S. and Canadian companies, last month said that 29 states were experiencing shortages.

Cement industry experts say the recent hurricanes could ease the cement problem temporarily because Florida builders can't work, at least for a little while. But they anticipate that reconstruction and the resumption of new building will quickly push demand back up.

China is cleary the main driver of the perplexing dual nature of the current economy: inflation & deflation. Inflation comes in when China strives to grow. It creates shortages in commodities. Deflation comes when China undercuts the world in manufacturing. This is one of Soros' virtuous circles. It will take just 10 more years before China will be Japan & the US's biggest strategic competitor.

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