THEME: BUSH VICTORY RALLY DECONSTRUCTED
Pundits are calling the recent 8 day straight rocket ride on the Dow as the "Bush Rally." The idea is that Bush was always the best man for the market, and so the elimination of the accursed liberal Senator Kerry was all the market needed to go up.
I actually have a slightly different take on the rally. The big rally did not occur on Nov. 3, the day after the Election, but on Nov. 4. In fact, the market was a bit sloppy on Nov. 3. What happened on Nov. 4 to send the market higher was the tone of Bush's press conference. The title of the Nov. 6 edition of the Economist was "Now, unite us." The tone of Bush's speech seemed like he was offering the olive branch.
The real reason for the rally was not victory for Bush, but the hope for conciliation.
Therefore, the risk for this rally is that the olive branch is dropped by either side.
Evidence that the Republicans are not going to back down:
Also, the rhetoric from the left is now sounding like the extreme left. Bill Maher had Noam Chomsky on (for the first time) as his guest on the season finale. He dripped praise on Chomsky and the audience erupted in applause when Chomsky stated that the US should be put on trial for war crimes.
I thought we were supposed to put away our campaign buttons and posters and go about business as usual?
If this tenuous peace is disrupted, then I fear that the market will lose its euphoria quickly.
Warren Buffett has added $1 billion more to his dollar shorts. Warren is smarter than I am, so I'll stay long gold.
Pundits are calling the recent 8 day straight rocket ride on the Dow as the "Bush Rally." The idea is that Bush was always the best man for the market, and so the elimination of the accursed liberal Senator Kerry was all the market needed to go up.
I actually have a slightly different take on the rally. The big rally did not occur on Nov. 3, the day after the Election, but on Nov. 4. In fact, the market was a bit sloppy on Nov. 3. What happened on Nov. 4 to send the market higher was the tone of Bush's press conference. The title of the Nov. 6 edition of the Economist was "Now, unite us." The tone of Bush's speech seemed like he was offering the olive branch.
The real reason for the rally was not victory for Bush, but the hope for conciliation.
Therefore, the risk for this rally is that the olive branch is dropped by either side.
Evidence that the Republicans are not going to back down:
President Bush "absolutely" will use his second term to push for a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, his top political strategist said Sunday. Karl Rove, who oversaw Bush's re-election victory, said Bush will renew the effort, which failed in Congress this year but may enjoy new support after 11 states approved bans on same-sex marriage on Election Day.
"Five thousand years of human history should not be overthrown by the acts of a few liberal judges or by the acts of a few local elected officials," Rove said on NBC's Meet the Press. "Marriage is and should be defined as being between one man and one woman." He made similar comments on Fox News Sunday.
Also, the rhetoric from the left is now sounding like the extreme left. Bill Maher had Noam Chomsky on (for the first time) as his guest on the season finale. He dripped praise on Chomsky and the audience erupted in applause when Chomsky stated that the US should be put on trial for war crimes.
I thought we were supposed to put away our campaign buttons and posters and go about business as usual?
If this tenuous peace is disrupted, then I fear that the market will lose its euphoria quickly.
Warren Buffett has added $1 billion more to his dollar shorts. Warren is smarter than I am, so I'll stay long gold.
posted by Johnny @ 1:18 PM
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