Market Precognition

The goal of this blog is to PRE-RECOGNIZE next several moves in the market
I focus on trading the S&P emini futures and T-notes futures.
A loyal reader will begin to understand the themes, memes, and sentiment that leads the market.

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Johnny Hom

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

THE MELTDOWN












The "Slow Motion Crash" suddenly picked up speed.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm right. I've been calling for it. I'm brilliant.
So why did I lose money?

Because I tried to make money!

Overnight, I saw it imploding. But (Mistake 1)I pulled my 1440 stop. That simple.

So when I saw it at 1435 at the open, I thought, well this is support. Let's just hang out. It popped to 1438, and I thought, well it'll get back to 1446 eventually.

Then it broke 1433, and I thought better of it and shorted 1 at 1434.

So far so good.

Then it popped down to 1428. (Mistake 2)I decided it was time to bounce. So instead of having a stop at 1430, and being done with the matter. I sold one more 1430 put!!!

This was to cost me dearly, as the market began to crumble to the NEXT logical support level of 1422. Now, here is the most deadly looking market this year, and I'm supposed to be bearish, but I getting LONGER! Wha?

Its ugly alright.

By then it drops to 1418, and I think let's just kick some butt, and Mistake 3 I not only cover my short from 1434, but go long one at 1418. PURE TILT!

Things then get real ugly, real fast.

I see the error of my ways. I manage somehow to sell out my one long at 1412.

Now that I am in full survival mode, the whole market is as well. That's when ICE AGE2: THE MELTDOWN happens in the Dow goes down 200 points in 2 minutes. By that time I'm totally fried, but I manage to unwind one of my puts at the horrific level of 46! I sold at 16 earlier in the day!

As the market bounced, I sold out the rest of my 2 at 1412 and 1403. The market closed at 1395.25. Some consolation.

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